UK Economic Outlook
UK Country Report for Quarter 2 2019
Read the latest UK industry report. This includes an analysis of the UK and Global economic outlook with a review of payment performance and corporate liquidations by region, industry sector and over time.
Download our full UK Industry report below for additional insights on the UK economic outlook, a deep dive on trends in corporate liquidations and payments performance, as well as recommendations from our expert economist team.
The UK country risk rating is maintained at DB2d. However, it is important to note that this would be downgraded in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
The retail sector remains challenging despite positive labour market conditions.
Dun & Bradstreet expects real GDP to grow by 1.3% this year and 1.4% in 2020, assuming a no-deal Brexit is avoided – should this not be the case, the UK would almost certainly enter a recession.
We are currently forecasting global real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2019, down from 2.9% in 2018.
A surprising statistic is that prompt payments improved in the three months to March before another increase occurred in June. Late payments however, remain a major problem for UK-based small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In mid-July, the Chartered Institute of Credit Management suspended 18 companies from the Prompt Payment Code as these businesses (which included BT, British American Tobacco, Prudential and Centrica) failed to pay 95% of their supplier invoices within 60 days.
In April-June, Dun & Bradstreet recorded 4,115 corporate liquidations, up by a marginal 0.2% q/q but down by 0.8% y/y.